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Photo Eric Kilby, CC BY-SA 2.0

Reading a forecast

Where to get the real forecast, what watches and warnings mean, and how to read wind and rain numbers before you go.

What you need

How

  1. Check the forecast the night before and again the morning you leave.
  2. Read the whole forecast, not just the picture. The wind and the timing of rain matter more than the high temperature.
  3. A watch means conditions could build into something dangerous. A warning means it is happening or about to.
  4. A special weather statement is a heads up for something unusual. Read it.
  5. Chance of rain is a percentage. Sixty percent means rain is more likely than not somewhere in the area.
  6. Wind is given as speed and direction, with gusts. For a canoe or kayak, anything over about 20 kilometres an hour is hard work on open water.
  7. For boats, the marine forecast gives wind in knots. A strong wind warning, a gale warning or anything above them means stay off the water in a small boat.
  8. Match the forecast to your plan. If it says the wind comes up in the afternoon, be off the big water by noon.

Do and don't

Do
  • Trust the warnings. They exist because people died in that weather.
  • Watch the sky as well. See Reading the sky.
  • Tell someone the day you will come back and what you will do if the weather turns.
Don't
  • Do not rely on a phone app's icon alone. Read the text.
  • Do not start across open water with a storm on the way, however calm it looks now.
  • Do not push on to meet a schedule when the forecast says stay.

Watch for

Danger
  • Weather on the coast changes faster than the forecast. Fog and wind can arrive in minutes. See Fog and coastal wind.
  • Forecasts are for a region. A valley, a pond or a headland can be much windier or colder.
  • Out of cell range, a weather radio is the only way to hear a new warning.

Notes

The best trips are often the ones you moved by a day. Waiting for a better forecast costs nothing.

Weatheradio Canada broadcasts forecasts and warnings on VHF frequencies that a cheap weather radio picks up in much of the province.

forecastwarningsmarinewind

Updated 2026-09-22

Related

Fog and coastal wind Weather and Sky Why the fog comes in over the headland, what the wind does around it, and how to move in both. Hurricanes and fall storms Weather and Sky The storms that come up the coast from the south in late summer and fall, what they do when they get here, and how to be off the water and ready before they land. Lightning and storms Weather and Sky Seeing a thunderstorm coming, where to be when it hits, and when it is safe again. Reading the sky Weather and Sky Seeing weather coming before it reaches you.